[FR] Who do you think will make it to the second round on Sunday?

[anon16397839]

• Le Pen
• Macron
• Fillon
• Mélenchon

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It will only allow you to vote two!

[anon16397839]

Fillon = Kremlin stooge (1980s edition)
Le Pen = Kremlin stooge (1930s edition)
Hamon = Recession in a box
Mélenchon = Depression in a box
Macron = Liberal <--- Correct answer

[k11]

Le Pen will definitely go through.

I reckon Melenchon will inch it through.

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Would vote Le Pen first, Fillon second.

Would stomach voting Melenchon if he went to second round with Macron.

In fact I would prefer both the Communists and the Fascists before I put a cross next to Macron. He's the type of politician I despise the most.

[lake]

Hoping melenchon makes it and then takes the cake, but I'm just happy the left still made a strong showing.

[AlexUK]

Le Pen will definitely go through.

I reckon Melenchon will inch it through.

Pretty much this.
I'd vote Le Pen all the way.

[John]

I want Melechon simply because if him and Le Pen got through then it's a guaranteed exit from the EU, but I think Fillon might clinch it.

[lordtutton]

I think it'll be Macron and Le Pen, but I am praying to god it's Melenchon and Le Pen.

[BlackHole]

It's almost certain at this point that Le Pen will make it, and although it would be hilarious if the second candidate was Mélenchon it will most likely be Macron, maybe Fillon.

[Phil25]

Hopefully its Le Pen vs. Melenchon

[Champion]

In fact I would prefer both the Communists and the Fascists before I put a cross next to Macron

I'm the same way. Commie > elitist social liberals.

[radonom]

While I definitely do feel that Macron would represent my views better, I don't feel like that when push comes to shove his voters are going to turn out in numbers. Based on what I can tell(from across the Atlantic, and the North American continent, so grain of salt) it seems that Melenchon and Le Pen have the most dedicated supporters and that Hamon is dying and that Macron isn't really inspiring people. This couples with the estimated third of voters who don't plan to show up concerns me a bit that Melenchon might end up making it to the second round, in which case it would be socialist vs nationalist conservative, and at that point I would probably begrudgingly end up going with the socialist.

[anon16397839]

Proud member of the liberal elite and snowflake brigade

[anon20265329]

It's almost certain at this point that Le Pen will make it

u seen the polls ? Macron is ahead in the first round now but a few % points.

[BlackHole]

u seen the polls ? Macron is ahead in the first round now but a few % points.

French polls don't take into account voter turnout, and FN voters tend to be much more fanatical and thus much more motivated to vote than Macron voters; and with the trend of high abstention in France in the first turn it makes it rather certain that Le Pen will be there in the second turn

[k11]

u seen the polls ? Macron is ahead in the first round now but a few % points.

French polls are not adjusted for likelihood of voters actually voting, just taking their raw vote. Totally goes against US/UK polling philosophy.

Polls show that Macron is third when adjusted for likelihood of voters turning out, with Le Pen first and Fillon second. Since the poll, Melenchon has risen quite a bit, so I would not be surprised if he is now 3rd and Macron is fourth.

Le Pen loses a mere 10-15% of voters when people admit that they might not turn out to vote. Fillon is the same. This means although Fillon has a lower share of the vote, his voters are more likely to turn out.

Menawhile Melenchon loses around 30% of voters and Macron loses 33-35%. Their voters are either unlikely to be set on them or simply fed up with politics and unlikely to turn out at all. Or maybe not bothered.

Voter likelihood is exactly what made Front National go into the second round in 2002 'unexpectedly'. French pollsters still haven't learned.