Yeah that’s totally not underexaggerated.
Because politicians are primarily driven by career prospects. Nobody wants to vote themselves out of office.
A post-impeachment election would look something that resembles this (I originally also had Wyoming and Nebraska for Trump but I’m not 100% sure if they’re more pro-congress or pro-trump, the Rasmussen poll shows its roughly even. Utah and Idaho will be the strongest Republican holds, West Virginia will be the strongest Trump vote.)
A split will inevitably kill the party in marginal states (Georgia, Texas, Arizona)
However, Trump might recover in the Rust Belt (all 6 states) but even then not enough to get anywhere close to running anything.
Option two in the second or third election